Brad Bohn

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Brad Bohn

Realty Executives International

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Brad Bohn - Agent at Realty Executives

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Stat of the Week!

We are often asked about the locations of out of state buyers. This is not an exact science since we rely on what is entered on the Affidavit of Value when the deed is recorded. Some people enter the address of the home they are buying rather than their current home. Others, particularly foreign buyers other than Canadians, enter a local address in Phoenix rather than the one in their home country. However we can still get a picture of the most important sources of home buyers from out of state. We normally exclude out of state investors since they are not buying a home for themselves to live in.
Here are the most popular cities entered as former home locations for first or second home buyers over the period 2011-2014:

  1. Calgary AB
  2. Edmonton, AB
  3. Anchorage AK
  4. San Diego CA
  5. Winnipeg, Manitoba
  6. Seattle WA
  7. Omaha NE
  8. Colorado Springs CO
  9. Chicago IL
  10. Denver CO
  11. Vancouver BC
  12. Portland OR
  13. Minot ND
  14. Bismarck ND
  15. Albuquerque NM
  16. Regina SK
  17. Vancouver WA
  18. Spokane WA
  19. Fargo ND
  20. Billings MT
  21. Las Vegas NV
  22. Los Angeles CA
  23. Olympia WA
  24. Littleton CO
  25. Minneapolis MN
  26. Sioux Falls SD
  27. San Jose CA
  28. Sherwood Park AB
  29. Surrey BC
  30. Rapid City SD

There are several revealing messages in this list. Many cities are relatively small places (Minot ND is the fourth largest city in North Dakota with a population of some 46,000). Many have horrible winter weather. Some are in states where the number of buyers for the state is relatively small, but almost all come from one city (e.g. Anchorage). There are no cities east of Chicago.
There are many huge cities that did not make the top 30:

  • Toronto ON (ranked 31)
  • San Francisco CA (ranked 36)
  • New York NY (ranked 39)
  • Houston TX (ranked 47)
  • Kansas City MO (ranked 92)
  • San Antonio TX (ranked 112)
  • Dallas TX (ranked 119)

It would appear that home buyers are primarily being attracted to Phoenix by the warm weather in winter. Phoenix is not attracting people from the urban centers and is not being perceived as having a booming business climate. The fact that Los Angeles did not make the top 20 is shocking. In fact the absence of Californian incomers is probably the largest reason for the current low out of state housing demand in Arizona.
It would have looked very different 10 years earlier.
The top cities for 2001 through 2004 were:

  1. San Diego CA
  2. Las Vegas NV
  3. San Jose CA
  4. Chicago IL
  5. Los Angeles CA
  6. San Francisco CA
  7. Albuquerque NM
  8. Seattle WA
  9. Henderson NV
  10. Denver CO
  11. Colorado Springs CO
  12. Portland OR
  13. Long Beach CA
  14. Irvine CA
  15. Fremont CA
  16. Santa Rosa CA
  17. Huntingdon Beach CA
  18. Sacramento CA
  19. Aurora CO
  20. Anaheim CA

More than half of the top 20 cities were in California in 2004. This has dropped to just 1 today - San Diego.
Arizona is currently extraordinarily unsuccessful at marketing itself to its largest pool of potential buyers for homes - Californians. Moreover, it has been successful in the past, so something is wrong. It is also pretty unsuccessful in attracting home buyers from east of the Mississippi.

If you have any real estate questions or are interested to see what your home is worth, please contact me.

Source for Statistics: © 2012 Cromford Associates LLC
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